Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, issued its first tokenized shares in a money market fund in November 2025. In preparation for the issuance, the French company conducted research into fund tokenization, concluding that a neutral market size estimate for 2030 is $120 billion. This was based on a current assets under management (AUM) of $10 billion (December 2025), although we believe the figure was closer to $13 billion. Either way this is a tiny fraction of the global industry worth more than $70 trillion.
The asset manager’s $120 billion neutral estimate for tokenized funds is significantly lower than 2024 predictions from Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey for the same period. According to Amundi’s analysis, BCG’s pessimistic scenario was $600 billion, with neutral and optimistic cases reaching $1 trillion and $1.3 trillion respectively. McKinsey projected $600 billion for the neutral scenario. Amundi’s justification for lower numbers appears logical, with its estimate assuming average growth of 56% a year.
Crypto natives will drive expansion in the short term with their desire for an entirely on-chain experience, and this is a key reason why Amundi has a more sober outlook as it believes adoption can only go so far within this segment. “Acceleration (is) likely to happen when traditional distributors including banks, fund platforms and brokers start incorporating digital assets directly into their offering and enable their clients to transact seamlessly using their digital wallet,” Amundi wrote. It also sees challenges: “the current landscape is hindered by infrastructure gaps, limited market liquidity, regulatory challenges, and unclear business incentives, all of which constrain its broader adoption at this time.”
It’s very tricky to make forecasts in such a fast moving space. Two recent pieces of information point to Amundi’s estimates being overly conservative.
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