The Financial Times reported that Christine Lagarde is likely to leave the European Central Bank early, according to a “person familiar with her thinking”. While her term expires in October 2027, the French elections take place in April 2027, with a possibility that the National Rally could win power. Given the manner in which the ECB President is selected by a qualified majority (explained later) of the EU heads of state, the rationale is to give Macron a say in selecting her successor.
This succession management narrative that has dominated coverage may not be the whole story, however. Lagarde served as France’s finance minister from 2007 to 2011 before leading the IMF and then the ECB. The French presidential election is months before her mandate expires. PolitiqueMatin noted this morning that the timing “ne manque pas de soulever l’hypothèse d’un retour de Christine Lagarde dans le débat national” — it cannot fail to raise the question of her return to national politics — drawing an explicit parallel with Dominique Strauss-Kahn, also a former finance minister and IMF chief once tipped for the Élysée. Announcing a presidential run while sitting as ECB president may be institutionally untenable, and it is far too early for any serious French candidate to declare. The succession story, flattering and statesmanlike, keeps options open.
The stated concern driving the early departure is that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, currently polling strongly for the 2027 French presidential race, could influence the choice of Lagarde’s successor. The ECB president is appointed by the European Council by qualified majority vote, requiring 55% of member states and 65% of EU population. Conversely, a blocking minority requires countries representing 35% or more of EU population, which seems unlikely even if France has a right wing government.
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