A July survey by Variety magazine found that consumer perceptions of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has declined, particularly amongst those that have not bought one. The majority of non-owners believe that NFTs are a bad investment, with just 15% believing they make a good one. The rest had a neutral outlook.
However, the perspective on NFTs is dramatically different for those that own one. Two-thirds believe it’s a good investment, and just 5% think it’s a poor one.
But the views of the non-owners could have a more significant impact on the market’s future, given that only 13% of those surveyed currently own NFTs.
In the early 90s, Geoffrey Moore coined the concept of Crossing the Chasm. A new product has to appeal beyond a small group of innovators and a larger group of early adopters in order to go mainstream. Notably, on average, early adopters make up 13.5% of the market. So the big question is whether or not NFTs have crossed the chasm.
Perhaps they have for some demographics. Unsurprisingly the 15-29 age group sees the most penetration, with a quarter owning an NFT. The figure for the 30-44 year group is slightly less, with a dramatic drop amongst older people. While ownership has held steady in the youngest group, it has dropped slightly across the others during the last six months. However, the figures might not be significant given that the survey conducted by GetWizer includes around 1,000 people.
For NFT promoters, the more concerning aspect was a decline in the big picture outlook. For example, in January, the survey found that 58% thought NFTs were a transformational concept, but the figure has now dropped to 44%. Likewise, 59% of people currently believe NFTs will be around in five years, a decline of 12 percentage points.
Awareness of NFTs is at an all-time high at 57%, compared to just 35% a year ago.
Since the crypto crash entered full swing in May, the dollar sales figures have dropped from $3.1 billion in May to $647 million in July, according to CryptoSlam. However, the transactions figure only declined by 12%, reinforcing the positive outlook from those already active in the sector.
Before the NFT boom hit full stride, some in the sector predicted that the future of NFTs was as rewards. Of late, we’ve certainly seen a shift to greater use of NFTs involving “membership” without calling it a loyalty club.
While Variety looked at the market from an entertainment perspective, the reality is NFTs already have numerous sub-sectors. For example, art, music, sport, games and more. Many of the big bucks are going towards sports rights. The UK’s Premier League football is likely to announce an NFT deal soon. If sentiment is dropping, the amount paid for rights might as well.