IHS Markit analyzed blockchain and found the technology alongside 5G as immature with the lowest readiness scores. Other technologies considered were artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT), cloud & virtualization and video everywhere. Nonetheless, the analysts are very bullish about blockchain predicting a $2 trillion market by 2030.
This compares to Gartner’s blockchain forecast of $3 trillion by the same date. IDC estimated 2018 enterprise blockchain spending was $1.5 billion. It makes shorter range forecasts and predicts $12.4 billion by 2022.
IHS Markit sees the low readiness scores as an indicator that blockchain may not yet be ready for adoption. But blockchain scored highly in terms of how influential it could become in six industries including automotive, healthcare, and manufacturing.
Although hype was acknowledged, the significant impact was predicted by both industry participants and even more so by IHS Markit analysts.
Two sectors were highlighted. In healthcare, there’s the potential to enable doctors and providers to share medical data despite using different digital systems. It also pointed to blockchain’s potential for energy trading and automation of the power grid, as well as fraud prevention.
For last year the company estimated a market size of $5 billion, with 72% coming from the financial sector. It’s unclear whether this included cryptocurrencies. Looking forward, it’s predicting a market of $500 billion by 2026, more than $1 trillion by 2028 and $2 trillion two years later.
Finance will continue to be a major part of the blockchain market, but the market share will gradually fall to 20% or so. Supply chain and logistics are forecast as significant.
The research is part of the company’s Digital Orbit newsletter, but IHS Markit is also leveraging blockchain internally. The company is developing a blockchain-based system called Stax to handle payments in syndicated loan trading. The aim is to reduce complexity and the need for reconciliation between parties.
IHS Markit also invested in and adopted the Cobalt blockchain-based foreign exchange platform.
Below are recent blockchain surveys:
Accenture: blockchain for aerospace
Boston Consulting Group: blockchain for transport and logistics
Cap Gemini blockchain survey
Deloitte 2019 blockchain survey
Deloitte 2018 blockchain survey
EY blockchain (finance and tech professionals) survey
EY fintech adoption survey
IDC semi-annual enterprise blockchain forecast
KPMG technology industry innovation survey
PwC blockchain survey
PwC China blockchain survey
World Energy Council / PwC blockchain survey
SAP blockchain survey
TD Bank payments industry survey
BNY Mellon payments survey
Friss insurance survey
Juniper enterprise blockchain survey
BIS Central Bank Digital Currency survey
IBM / OMFIF Central Bank Digital Currency survey
ING general population cryptocurrency attitudes